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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center; line-height: 115%;" align="center"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The resignation of the Iraqi Minister of Finance The late withdrawal and the fate of the "zombie state"</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: #3598db;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Dr. Muhammad Hisham Albatat</span></strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Introduction</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">In the midst of the political crisis in Iraq, and in light of the division of the scene into two demonstrations and sit-ins, the resignation submitted by Finance Minister Ali Abdul Amir Allawi surfaced strongly, what are the indicators that can be extracted from this event The difference in a timing fraught with political debates and conflicts, and what are the most prominent contents of the resignation? This paper seeks to answer the above two questions, adding to the scenarios of getting out of the current impasse for politicians who each side adheres to its positions within a dangerous stability that indicates the difficulty of exits in a country full of blockages.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Late withdrawal:</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">It was very natural, and supposed logically that the current Iraqi government, with all its ministerial team, continues to work on the conduct of business and discharge until the political parties reach a satisfactory agreement leading to a solution, even temporary, to the current crisis, but the Minister of Finance surprised everyone by submitting his resignation, which included important indicators, the most important of which is the lengthy narrative of the Iraqi political situation and its economic burdens that the resignation entailed, as the resignation included a detailed and lengthy explanation that differs from the familiar formats of the resignation books often submitted by politicians, It became like a statement of the ministry's performance evaluation, a narrative of the harbingers of the current political system, and the dangerous consequences that loom for the outgoing minister. Allawi opened his resignation book by recalling the mechanism through which he was chosen as Minister of Finance, emphasizing his "technocracy" and independence, and the obstacles to passing it had it not been for the intervention of some political blocs to grant him the chair of the first man in the Iraqi economy, announcing at the same time that his journey in the Iraqi ministries has ended, pointing to the need to allow young people to complete the road and restore what can be restored, but there is a strange paradox in all that happened, this paradox lies in the following question:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>If the political and economic situation in Iraq has reached a serious degree of corruption and deterioration, and practical solutions are not on the horizon, why did Dr. Allawi delay in submitting his resignation throughout the past period? Allawi tried to </span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>answer this question by pointing out that the government in which he works now is a caretaker government, but a government that walks </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">"daily business" as he put it, and so a type of government that is restricted in powers, narrow spaces through which the minister can move, which means that his stay in office or his exit from it will not change anything, this is how Allawi justified his late withdrawal from the government, but this answer can be in line with some of its details, However, in general, it is not convincing, there is something unheard about in the late withdrawal, it seems to me that this resignation came late because of the presence of great political pressures and attempts to prolong the life of the caretaker government, even for a year in preparation for early elections, the minister wanted to get out of the whole game, and this exit indicates the lengthy narrative of the resignation, is the statement of the late from the political pressures and secret and wide corruption networks that he referred to in the contents of the resignation, or perhaps there are other pressures related to the issue of "Ashtar Gate" and its holding With the Rafidain Bank, in politics the threads are intertwined in a spider way, which cannot be disengaged in the manner that reneged on their spinning after the power of Ankatha according to the Qur'anic expression.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">We do not disagree on the integrity of Mr. Allawi, nor on his economic experience and mentality in business management, but we disagree about the mechanisms he practiced to face the economic challenges of Iraq during his receipt of the ministry, it is not enough to be a doctor skilled in the names of medicines and their uses, but you must also be aware of the nature of the patient's body that you give treatment, the treatments applied by the current government to address the structural imbalance of the Iraqi economy during the Corona pandemic and its aftermath, treatments that raised the levels of hard currency stocks, and at the same time increased Poverty rate among citizens! </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>It seems that the quick acceptance with which the prime minister dealt with the resignation indicates that there is no possibility of his continuation in the ministry, and an attempt to catch things up with the least losses at a time when the current government needs most is to keep the eye away from it as much as possible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Beware of the state "zombies":</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_GoBack"></a><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The resignation involved a number of warnings, but warnings that the resigned minister wanted to emphasize, most of which are known to all, and some of them gain his novelty and vitality from the nature of the person who remembers them, and the timing of the proposal in the context of the overall current political events, and in order not to be absorbed in the tedious partial prosecution process of everything that was put forward in the resignation folds, it is important to refer to the "main points" that it contained:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">First:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> Emphasizing the close relationship between the successive political crises of the post-2003 political track and the Iraqi constitution, as the structural defect in the body of the constitution, and its formulation in line with partial political desires, created a state of mining in the constitutional articles, making it contribute to the intensification of political problems rather than solving them, which prompted the resigned minister to call for amending or changing the constitution to avoid these problems, and overcome these mines.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Second: The diagnosis of a serious </span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">deterioration in the status of the state, and its transformation into a puppet of narrow interests and personal benefits contributed to a serious degree to reaching the current outcomes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Third:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> (The existence of extensive secret networks of senior officials, businessmen, politicians and corrupt state employees in the shadows to control entire sectors of the economy, and withdraw billions of dollars from the public treasury, protected networks of major political parties, parliamentary immunity, arming the law and even foreign powers), and this is an important and dangerous testimony from a man who is in the furnace of financial ministerial work for more than once, which reveals the unfortunate situation of the economic situation in Iraq, the problem, according to what was included in the resignation, is not in the lack of Billions of dollars that can improve the situation of the Iraqi people, and even that these billions go into the pockets of secret networks and those behind them.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Fourth: </span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Emphasizing the problem of electronic payment, and suspicious contracts in it, to the extent that Dr. Allawi describes it as (the straw that broke the camel's back), while calling on the judiciary to continue to follow up the contract of the "Ishtar Gate" company, to be a good gesture to restore confidence in the system, which is a reference to the contract concluded by this company with Rafidain Bank, the penalty clause of $ 600 million, and the mysterious circumstances of what happened in this contract.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Fifth: Dr. Allawi </span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">has sought</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> a </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>lengthy narrative</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">, and the evaluation of the work of the </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>ministry, gave his ministry a degree of "exceptionally good", and here the minister fell into a contradiction between leaving the rule of history, and evaluation of others, and between his self-assessment of his person, and the government and its prime minister, and it was better not to address this detail, and only list the most prominent achievements, leaving the issue of evaluation to others.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Sixth: Not in the</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> manner of Ibn Khaldun Hegel, but on the way he diagnosed the current Iraqi state, the Minister of Finance sought to give a dialectical dimension to the state, in light of the function of corruption and chaos, as he pointed out (unlike humans, states do not die permanently, and zombie states can remain for years, even for decades before they are buried, the state shows signs of terminal disease).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Sound the alarm, a warning from the resigned minister, things must be rectified, some blockages must be resolved, as keeping things as they are means moving towards the "monster state", a state in which corruption is institutionalized, and within which the interests of citizens depend on networks of corruption and suspicious deals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Post-resignation scenarios:</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>After accepting the resignation of the Prime Minister, and in light of the political crisis plaguing the Iraqi political scene, the most prominent scenarios available in the initial political perception can be presented:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The first scenario: the formation of a new government, with a full quorum, that is, four years, with a political settlement with the Sadrist movement, and</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> this scenario is unlikely, due to the impossibility of the Sadrist movement's approval of a new long-term government, especially after the collective resignation submitted by the Sadrist deputies, in addition to the fact that political and public tension does not indicate the possibility of achieving such a scenario.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The second scenario: the continuation of the current</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> caretaker government, with a prior date for new early elections, and this scenario is unlikely in light of the refusal of the coordination framework to maintain this government on the one hand, and the resignation of the Minister of Finance, which constituted the end of hopes to extend the life of the current government until the next elections.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The third scenario: the formation of a </span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">new </span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>government, a framework </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">candidate</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> that enjoys the acceptance of the </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>chest, even implicitly, in addition to the other components, provided that it is an interim government, conditional on a prior date for early elections, the agreement on which leads to the dispersal of the demonstrations and sit-ins, and returns people to their homes, and works to hold early elections on the date agreed upon by the political parties, and it seems that this scenario is the most likely from our point of view in light of the current political changes, unless things arise, and the elements of the political equation change in a country where there are many Variables and developments.</span></p>
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