<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;" align="center"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Mutual considerations. Cairo and Ankara: Indicators of Convergence and Future Paths</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="color: #3c6e81; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Karam Said / Regional Affairs Expert, Deputy Managing Editor of Al-Demokra Magazine - Al-Ahram</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Turkey and Egypt. </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Amr Adly indicators,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> the areas of calm between Cairo and Ankara </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black;">are escalating</span></span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">, due to a number of positive indicators, foremost of which is the visit of the Turkish</span> </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Minister of Finance to Cairo to attend the meetings of the Islamic Development Bank hosted by the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh on June 4</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">, </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>2022 This step was preceded by the announcement of the Turkish Foreign Minister on April 13 that his country would take steps to normalize relations with Egypt, including that his country may appoint an ambassador to Egypt as part of the normalization of relations with Egypt </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 8.5pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">1</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">. The Turkish minister's remarks came as Egyptian and Turkish diplomats prepare in the coming days to hold a third round of negotiations to repair the tense relations since 2013 between the two countries, which escalated after the governments of the two countries supported warring parties to the Libyan war and entered into contradictory alliances in the eastern Mediterranean region.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 16.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Intense moves</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Despite the continued signs of tension on the surface of Turkish-Egyptian relations, many indicators of understanding have spread during the last period between the two countries, and this appeared in Egypt's taking into account the Turkish naval claims regarding the border demarcation agreement with Greece, signed in August 2020, into account, what Ankara considered as a goodwill </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 8.5pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">gesture 2</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">. Egyptian and Turkish diplomats also met in May and September 2021, as part of their efforts to discuss the causes of tension, and the third round of talks is expected to be held during the next phase .</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Article for</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Areas of calm strengthened as Turkey reduces support for prominent leaders of the Brotherhood</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Muslims as well as forcing media platforms, which broadcast from Turkey, to stop</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">A significant aspect of its programs that oppose the Egyptian regime. The development in the trajectories of the relationship between Ankara and Cairo prompted the Egyptian Foreign Minister in October 2021 to cautiously praise this progress, saying in his remarks that "I hope that the two countries can build on this progress." In a clear indication of the two countries' keenness to root the truce process, the Turkish Foreign Minister stressed on the past 13 that relations with Egypt need to be corrected, adding during a speech at a government meeting, "It is very important to normalize relations between the two countries because of their importance to many He revealed that his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry will visit Istanbul during the current Ramadan, if there is no emergency</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">. </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>In parallel, Cairo announced on March 29 that Turkish citizens would be granted a one-year entry facility according to specific conditions, and these facilities have already entered into force as of April 2022, for citizens of Turkey and 5 other countries, namely Pakistan, India, China, Morocco and Algeria. The features of rapprochement, and jumping on the areas of tension between the two countries, appeared</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> with the announcement of </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the Egyptian opposition channel "Mekameleen", which was broadcasting from Turkey at the end of last April, to move its headquarters outside Turkish territory. Some sources also revealed in early May that some figures affiliated with the Egyptian opposition began to leave Turkish territory, especially those who did not regularize their legal residence status there, whether by acquiring Turkish citizenship or possessing permanent residence here as </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 8.5pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">3</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">.</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">On the other hand, it is noteworthy that "the Turkish-Gulf rapprochement also contributed to paving the way for the restoration of relations between Ankara and Cairo, especially since the former is aware that the development of relations with the Gulf region is </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>linked in a significant part to improving relations with Cairo, and the latter wants not to put itself under any pressure for a greater rapprochement between its Gulf allies and Turkey, and it is noteworthy that the visit of the Saudi crown prince to Turkey on June 23 opened the doors to a new rapprochement between Turkey and </span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>region.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 16.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Mutual accounts</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">During the current stage, Turkey and Egypt are seeking to break the state of tension and circumvent controversial files. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">In this context, the most prominent motives for rapprochement can be mentioned as follows:</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Balancing strategic interests: Despite the continued contentious issues between Ankara and Cairo, especially the continued Turkish military involvement in Libya, and Cairo's opposition to Turkish moves in the eastern Mediterranean, it is expected that the pragmatic approach will push the administration of the two countries not to escalate the dispute to an unprecedented degree, and return to the balance of interests, given Turkey's need for the Egyptian role in securing its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean region, as Cairo is the strategic point of reference in the Mediterranean Gas Organization, which brings together the littoral countries on the The Mediterranean basin, of which Turkey seeks to be a part<a name="_GoBack"></a>. On the other hand, the continued state of political liquidity in Libya provided a fertile environment for Turkey and Egypt to devote the process of normalizing relations, as the two countries began to support the United Nations negotiations, which began in late 2020, to form a new national unity government, and the two countries became more agreed on supporting a unified national unity government in Libya. Especially in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Building on the current rapprochement efforts and establishing calm between the two countries represents an opportunity to provide more opportunities to address the thorny issues between Ankara and Cairo and take into account common interests. Understanding regional variables: The Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement is inseparable from their desire to accommodate regional transformations, as there are common fears of a decline in their position in the regional strategy after the signing of the Brahmin Accords, and the normalization of several Arab countries relations with Israel. On the other hand, Cairo sees the importance of responding to the new Turkish trends, and its quest to zero problems with the regional powers, which was manifested in repairing the relationship with the Marat and Israel, and making significant progress in correcting the relationship with Saudi Arabia and Armenia. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Article for</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Securing economic interests: Turkey and Egypt seek to ease tensions</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">between them to secure their common economic interests, as trade cooperation carries</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The economy is an absolute priority at this time, especially with the desire of Turkey and Egypt to</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Maintain trade, as the total volume of trade between them doubled 3</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">times between 2007 and 2020, from $4.4 billion to $11 billion, which is</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Which may reflect positively on the economy of both countries, which is suffering a major crisis due to</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The decline in the price of the currency of the two countries, as well as the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, and the repercussions of the crisis</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Ukrainian on the traffic of tourism in both countries.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">There is also an Egyptian government keenness to protect Turkish investments in it, which</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">More than $2 billion and there are nearly 200 Turkish companies, of which 40</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">A large company that provides significant job opportunities. </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 8.5pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">5</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Promoting energy projects: Ankara is aware that the current Ukrainian crisis, and Russia's tendency to</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Punishing the West by Stopping Gas Supplies to Global Markets Provides an Exceptional Opportunity for Turkey</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">To become a carrier of Egyptian gas for European markets. Also, the relationship with Cairo</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">In the field of energy, it has become of great importance at this time, for several considerations</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">First:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> Turkey's fears of Western pressure on it to prevent the import of Russian gas and research</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">About other alternatives. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Second,</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> Egypt has recently become an important exporter of natural gas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Liquefied to Turkey.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Third,</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> Turkey may face more pressure in</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Its energy needs during the next phase, after the expiration of the Nigerian LNG contract at the end of last October without renewal, which was estimated</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> to</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">with 1.3 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas, not to mention Turkey recording a record high</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">in demand for liquefied gas to reach about 60 billion cubic meters by the end of the year</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">2021 , against the background of strong consumption in the energy sector .</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Fourth, Ankara and Cairo</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> believe that restoring the relationship with Cairo provides greater opportunities for both parties in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as helping Turkey to protect its interests. This vision was reinforced by positive Egyptian signals to Ankara, the most important of which was on February 18, 2020, when it launched the first global tender for oil and natural gas exploration in the Gulf of Suez, the Western Desert and the Eastern Mediterranean, taking into account the Turkish continental shelf stipulated in an agreement with the Government of National Accord in Libya in 2019. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Diversifying Turkey's Partners:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> Exploratory Dialogue Rounds between Cairo and Ankara came in</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">May and September 2021, in addition to stopping statements and counter-statements between the two countries, revealing Ankara's desire to strengthen its partnerships with regional powers in the region,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Especially Cairo, especially in light of the desire of the Turkish political and military elites to return</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Consider Turkey's relations with Western powers, especially the United States after</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Turkey excluded from F35</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> fighter production program </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>, US Congress refused to grant</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Turkey F16 aircraft. Contentious issues between Turkey and its European partners also remain.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">At its most intense, this was reflected in the continued European criticism of the human rights file</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">In Turkey, opposition to Ankara's accession to the European Union not to mention the declaration of the EU summit</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;">to</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">European Union held on June 23 and 24 for its support for Greece in its differences</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">With Turkey .</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 16.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Possible paths of the relationship</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Despite the efforts made to resolve the controversial issues between Cairo and Ankara, there are</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Challenges that cast a shadow over the nature of the potential paths and, in this general context,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Three levels can be referred to, to which Egyptian-Turkish relations may be exposed,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">They can be explained as follows :</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Level I: Overall Improvement:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> Moving towards a Comprehensive Improvement that Includes Addressing All</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Existing problems between the two countries. But this scenario remains a low probability for considerations</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Several tasks:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">First: The</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> conflicting positions of the two countries in the crises of the region, especially the Libyan crisis, and the escalation of this concern with the intensive Turkish moves in eastern Libya, and building bridges of trust with political structures in eastern Libya, which was revealed by the visit of the Turkish ambassador to Tripoli, Kenan Yilmaz, on January 19. The meeting is </span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">first of its kind</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> and </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">has resulted in breaking tensions between Ankara and eastern Libya. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Second, the</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> rivalry between Cairo and Ankara may return, especially in light of Egypt's doubts about Turkey's presence in the Horn of Africa and its growing partnership with Ethiopia after it granted a number of drones last December to the Addis Ababa government, which disputes with Egypt, its share of the Nile River</span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">waters.</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Article for</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Third, there</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> is another issue of whether the Turkish president is willing</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">For a direct meeting with his Egyptian counterpart, especially since he hinted in previous statements that he will not</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">He wants to meet Sisi in person. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Level II: Stalemate of the</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> situation </span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>: freezing the situation as it is, i.e. without achieving any</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Tangible progress in any problem, but keeping the media exchange over</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Emphasizing the desire to develop reconciliation efforts, and the continuation of meetings at the level of immediate and diplomatic delegations, a scenario that ensures easing pressure on the two countries without forcing the two countries to make concessions on major controversial issues .</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The third level: limited improvement: </span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">despite the escalation of tension between Turkey and Egypt, during</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The past period, but this does not negate that there are counter-considerations, which may push both parties</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Not only to try to control the boundaries of this tension, and not to escalate it to an unprecedented degree, in a way that could impose negative repercussions on their interests, but also to seek to reach consensus axes on some issues of common interest. It seems that this scenario is the most fortunate, for several considerations:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">First:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> ending the state of adversary and restoring diplomatic relations at the level of the existing</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">By business .</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;">He said</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Second: the</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> development in trade relations, the growth rate has increased in</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Trade exchange between Egypt and Turkey increased by 32.6 percent in 2021, and</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The amount of goods imported and exported between the two countries by one third, equivalent to 1.6</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">An additional billion dollars in the volume of trade between the two countries. On January 21, an Egyptian delegation visited Turkey, and it was agreed to increase investments between the two countries. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Third:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> The positive attitudes of the Turkish leadership, as the Turkish president confirmed in statements</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">in November 2021 that his country will take steps to improve relations</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">With Egypt<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Fourth,</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> local developments in both countries could represent in the future.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Proximity is a momentum to achieve a limited improvement scenario. While you do not oppose</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Cairo normalizes relations with Turkey on condition of non-interference in its internal affairs, no</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The Turkish opposition carries anti-Egyptian tendencies. Not a few voices are also raised.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Within the Justice and Development Party, on the need to develop Turkish foreign policy regarding</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The countries of the region, especially Cairo, Syria and Libya.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">In conclusion:</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> It can be said that there are mutual indications of strengthening the efforts of rapprochement between Egypt</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">And Turkey during the current stage, and in the forefront of which is Turkey's announcement of new steps</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Towards Cairo, which has shown a remarkable response to Turkish trends, and has also provided an</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 18.0pt; color: white; mso-ansi-language: EN;">article for</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> the current Turkish efforts a fertile environment to promote rapprochement, especially since Ankara has recently turned</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Towards besieging the Egyptian media platforms that broadcast from Istanbul, not to mention that</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Cairo took into account Turkey's maritime interests when signing maritime border demarcation agreements</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; line-height: normal; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">With Greece . At the same time, Turkey is aware that rapprochement with Cairo guarantees its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and contributes to addressing Turkey's regional and international vulnerability. The Ukrainian crisis has also become a pressure card on Turkey in terms of repairing the relationship with Cairo, as there are Turkey's fears of escalating Western pressure to prevent the import of Russian gas. Therefore, Ankara believes that rapprochement with Cairo could give Turkey a greater opportunity to promote energy projects with Cairo, especially converting it as a carrier of Egyptian gas or at least securing its import of Egyptian gas, for example. Among other things, despite the challenges that prevent achieving comprehensive improvement, there are indications that there are increasing opportunities for limited improvement between the two countries, including Turkey's announcement of its desire to appoint an ambassador in Cairo, and the statements of the Turkish Foreign Minister about a possible meeting in Istanbul during Ramadan with his Egyptian counterpart.</span></p>