<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: center;" align="center"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span></span></strong><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The prospective Iraqi government between the Qat of the inside and the constraints of the outside</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR"><a name="_GoBack"></a><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="color: #3598db;">Dr. Mohammed Hashem Al-Battat</span> / Professor of Political Science at Al-Mustansiriya University</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Turninga hand on the identity determinations of the person whoescaped to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>win the post of prime minister in Iraq, and then<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>formation <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of the Iraqi government <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>with difficult labor as usual, the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>complexity of the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Iraqi political scene <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>leads to the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>recognition of the existence <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of a set of internal constraintsandexternal constraints on the blocs.The political situation in Iraq should be taken into consideration if <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>it wants to be able to pass the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>process of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>forming the new government, and what is happening in terms of the differences in views on the personalityofthe coordination framework (MohammedDr. Shia Al-Sudani), and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the current escalations By the masses of the political trend in the Green Zone and elsewhere, there is no imbalance<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>in the personal identification of the sprinkler H, no matter how much it is covered by the media's passages <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>on the groundas well, in other words,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the political blockage<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>in the process of forming the government goes beyond the name of the sprinkler. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>H to the Prime Minister, is it (X) or (Y), yes, the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>person who is sprinklerH may contribute to a certain degree to the blockage or d&eacute;tente, but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>this does not cancel the exponential attachment to other major factors and indicators <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that must be paid attention <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>to if I want to distance Iraq and Iraqis from the chaos and dialectics of war.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>With <strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Qat inside Iraq, who will win the bet?</strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The Iraqi political scene <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>is mired in its problems and multiplying complexities, and then there are many challenges that the Iraqi <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>government <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>must address according to a conscious <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>scientific strategy, and not the usual improvisations or sweets <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>not <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>patchwork within the rule of (deporting crises not zeroing them) or(anesthetizing wounds not treating them).However, the main obstacles that precede what the next <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>government must <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>do to survive are the obstacles that the prospective <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>government must <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>address to exist, that is, for the government <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>itself to pass and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>see the light, and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the most prominent of these obstacles <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>within the internal map are In finding a real understanding that guarantees the element of containment of the current of the current <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>is <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>not over yet, but <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>is still in its infancy, and the suggestive Friday prayers held by the Drion, and the storming of the headquarters of the Iraqi<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Council of Representatives <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>and the sit-in in it,Early escalation in determining who will win the bet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>It is a political <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>flatness to argue <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>mass resignation of the deputies of the Iraqi Council of Representatives<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>represents a political act, as much as it is an amendment in the rules <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of political play.From <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>political negotiation under the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>dome of parliament to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>negotiation with the pressure card through the Iraqi street, which means the need to find <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>a political agreement <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that guarantees the current an acceptable ceiling of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>demands, not least understanding in the form <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Salahi for the next government, even if it is short, reassures the people <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>their waiting for the next elections will not last for four years, in addition togiving guarantees about a form of government that differs from the previous one in terms of characters, visions and program.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">It is not possible to say that reaching <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>such <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>an agreement is <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>going in light of the current data, but it is not impossible if it is thought of ways out of the political crisis away from tension, and it is mandatory to get out of thinking with the zero-sum game mentality, for both parties, because such a type of conflict does not benefit political thinking<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Zero, but rather reducing the ceiling of demands, realistic visions, and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>logical desires, by all political parties<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>can<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>indicatea good start to political action <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that leads to a government capable of passing, and political bets <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>must <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>gain their relative gains, and must be made Through compromises that take into account the will of the people, winning <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the political bet <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>means in its most extreme sense "the highest relative gain."</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The samething is said for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the political parties <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of the Syrian and Kurdish despite their differences, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>they are burdened with differences and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>growing political rivalries, as the three <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>major <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>companies are suffering under the weight of bilateral divisions that doubt their current status of major obstacles <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>.It can be said <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>these dualities within the three major Mekonates can be transformed <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>into a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>positive phenomenon, if they manage to lead in the coming years into (major) bilateral alliances that include a soft representative of the three Makku Nat, enter the elections. Then <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>it is possible to overcome a prominent situation in front of the next government, with conflicts (the majority-al-al-a-faqih), and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>the (inclusion of the majority of the three components, notonly one), i.e. doubts the tripartite alliance that won the majority of parliamentary seats in thenext one, while the alliance is The losing trio in the opposition, then a relative way out ofthe main problems in the current <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Iraqi scene can be found <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-IQ" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-IQ" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-IQ" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The constraints of the Iraqi</span></strong><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> <strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">external, </strong><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the <strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">reassurance of the lost:</strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Since the American occupation of Iraq <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>in 2003,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>and the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>forced change that took place and the overthrow of the regime of the grave tyrant, international<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>and regional <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>actorshave been interfering, influencing <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>and pressuring internal actors according to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>zigzag curves (up and down) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>according to external desires that have formed (constraints) inside Iraq. To take it into account, no future Iraqi government can <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>guarantee for itself the passage without obtaining an acceptable degree <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of understanding with external actors, and that the absence of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>such trivialitymeans flooding Iraq with crises, and then <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>increasing the burden of qat, and it is enough to notice allWhat happened was a difference in views between <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the Iraqi government and one of these actors, the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>level of internal crises towards the government increased, which certainly does not reveal a secret about <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the extent of external influence in the Iraqi scene.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">It is important torefer to the Iraqi political behavior<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>because it did not convincingly and effectively understand the nature of dealing with the outside, as the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>process of managing international balances in the Iraqi arena <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>needs <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>state of realistic reassurance to external actors that the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>Iraqi government<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>does not antagonize these actors. The previous Iraqi governments, in the sentence not the sentence, tend to one party withoutanother significantly provokes the other party, and makes it useful for the tools of internal influence to change <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>the political equation to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>a situation that suits it, and it is not related to the fact that the political inclination <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>this bloc A and that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>, the tendencies The political situation is a fait accompli, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>and the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>political culmination is notideological, a fixed fact, andwe are talking here about a strategy(cognitive reassurance of external actors), orreassuringthe <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>foreign political person that The international balance is taken into account, and this is dictated <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>by political realism, or <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>talking about the lackof interventions, or the possibility of absolute distancing from Iraq and its young experience fromothers, these are wishes we wish, but not everythingthat the "people" wishes to realize, as the lack of politics is driven by data andconstraints, not by wishes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">From here, we must emphasize the missing reassurance, and search for indicators that contribute to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>finding it if I want to work onpassing a new government that contributes, even partially and temporarily, to solving the current complexities in the political situation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>The internal negotiations to understand the acceptable solutions to their obstacles, and at the same time <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>, work to activate the external negotiations to agree on the acceptable limit<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>constraints to reassure the various external parties on the acceptable limits of difference within the Iraqi scene;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>It is more complex for the deep extent of overlap and entanglement between external and internal visions, and the factors affectingthe Iraqi scene <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>in general.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-IQ" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;">&nbsp;</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-IQ" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-IQ" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;">&nbsp;</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Simplified Arabic',serif; mso-bidi-language: AR-IQ;">&nbsp;</span></p>